The emotional cycle of change

In one paragraph

People go through predictable emotional stages during a change — and the low point comes after the enthusiasm and before the benefit, which is exactly when most changes get abandoned.

Uninformed optimism. The new thing sounds excellent. Nobody has hit the difficulties yet.

Informed pessimism. The reality arrives — it is harder, slower and more disruptive than expected. Enthusiasm drops sharply.

The valley of despair. The low point, where quitting feels sensible and returning to the old way is very attractive. Most changes die here.

Informed optimism. Competence starts to build, the new way begins to work, confidence returns.

Success and fulfilment. The change is normal, and everyone forgets it was ever difficult.

Knowing the valley is coming is most of the defence against it. A team told in advance that week four will feel like a mistake behaves very differently in week four.

How to actually use it

• Say the shape out loud when you announce the change. Predicting the dip buys you enormous credibility when it arrives.
• Plan a visible early win to shorten the valley — the same reason Kotter puts short-term wins at step six.

Where it breaks down

• Not everyone moves at the same pace, so a team is usually spread across several stages at once, which is itself a source of friction.
• It describes feelings, not whether the change is right. Sometimes the valley is telling you something true.

If you are being examined on it

Pair with Kotter and Lewin: this is what change feels like, those are what you do about it.

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