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The economic climate

Interest rates, inflation, incomes and unemployment — and how each one reaches your till.

GCSEGCSE Business — Influences on business
Also called: interest rates, inflation, unemployment, consumer income, recession

In one paragraph

The general state of the economy changes how much customers spend, what your costs are, and what your borrowing costs. It affects every business, just not all in the same direction.

Consumer income — when real incomes rise, spending rises, and it rises most on luxuries and income-elastic goods. When incomes fall, spending shifts to essentials and to cheaper substitutes, which is why discounters grow in downturns.

Unemployment — high unemployment means weaker consumer demand, and a larger pool of available labour which eases recruitment and wage pressure.

Interest rates — the cost of borrowing. Higher rates raise the cost of loans, overdrafts and mortgages, which reduces both business investment and consumer spending, particularly on anything bought on credit.

Inflation — rising prices. It raises your input costs, raises wage expectations, and erodes the value of money owed to you. Modest inflation is normal; rapid inflation makes planning and pricing hard.

Not every business suffers equally

Inferior goods and value brands often do *better* in a downturn as customers trade down. Businesses selling essentials are less affected than those selling big-ticket discretionary items.

How to actually use it

  • Work out which side of a downturn you are on. If you sell a discretionary purchase, plan for volume to fall; if you sell an essential or a cheaper alternative, plan for it to rise.
  • Stress-test your borrowing against a rate rise before you take it, not after.

Where it breaks down

  • Aggregate figures hide enormous variation by sector and region. National retail sales tell you little about your street.

If you are being examined on it

Always say which way it cuts *for this business*. 'A recession is bad for business' is not an answer; explain the mechanism from income to demand to this firm.